Last night saw 81 Conservative MPs rebel against the Government, making it not only the largest ever Tory rebellion on Europe in Government, but very nearly twice as large as the previous biggest Tory rebellion suffered by David Cameron in Government.
The 81 Conservatives were joined in the aye lobby by 19 Labour rebels, eight DUP members, one independent unionist, one Green, one Liberal Democrat (Adrian Sanders), along with two Conservative MPs – Iain Stewart and Mike Weatherley – who cast deliberate abstentions by voting in both lobbies.
Previous rebelliousness on Europe proved an astonishingly good predictor of last night’s voting patterns, as the table below shows. Of the 78 Conservative MPs to have cast dissenting votes on Europe so far this Parliament, 62 (80%) voted against the Government last night. The rebels found safety in numbers. Moreover, as the table shows, there was a clear relationship between previous propensity to rebel and behavior on Monday. Of the 39 who had rebelled on at least two occasions before over Europe, all but one did so again last night.
(Similarly, of the 60 Conservative MPs who signed the rebel motion last week, 56 went on to dissent last night. Only two Conservative backbenchers – David Mowat and Ian Liddell-Grainger – who signed the motion voted with the Government, while one – Mike Weatherley – cast a deliberate abstention by voting in both lobbies).
What is most striking however, about last night’s rebellion is that of the 81 Tory rebels, 49 were drawn from the 2010 intake. In other words, very nearly six in ten of the rebels (59%) were new MPs. New MPs are usually disproportionately loyal. Not this lot, as we’ve noted before. One frustration – though only one – is that the whips cannot offer them jobs in Government because there simply are not enough to go around given the need to satisfy the Liberal Democrats.
Of the 81 rebels, 64 already had form from this Parliament, having defied the whips at least once. But that still leaves 17 new rebels. With the exception of the two PPSs who resigned – Adam Holloway and Stewart Jackson – together with the Monmouth MP David TC Davies (all three of whom are drawn from the 2005 intake), the remainder of the new rebels were first elected in 2010: Stuart Andrew; Dan Byles; Lorraine Fullbrook; George Hollingbery; Marcus Jones; Andrea Leadsom; Karen Lumley; Anne Marie Morris; James Morris; Stephen McPartland; Neil Parish; Priti Patel; Julian Sturdy; and Heather Wheeler
Taken together, the addition of these 17 new rebels bring the total number of Conservative MPs to have defied the whip so far this Parliament to 116.
There have now been 121 Conservative rebellions so far this Parliament, representing 32.5% of divisions – in other words, almost one third of all divisions have seen some Conservative dissent. Relationship between previous behavior on Europe and referendum vote
| Name | Previous rebellions on Europe, 2010-2011 | Vote on Referendum, 24 October |
|---|---|---|
| Hollobone, Philip | 22 | For |
| Bone, Peter | 21 | For |
| Nuttall, David | 19 | For |
| Cash, William | 17 | For |
| Carswell, Douglas | 16 | For |
| Turner, Andrew | 16 | For |
| Chope, Christopher | 15 | For |
| Davies, Philip | 15 | For |
| Main, Anne | 15 | For |
| Clappison, James | 14 | For |
| Reckless, Mark | 14 | For |
| Jenkin, Bernard | 12 | For |
| Shepherd, Richard | 11 | For |
| Lewis, Dr Julian | 10 | For |
| Baker, Steve | 9 | For |
| Percy, Andrew | 9 | For |
| Redwood, John | 9 | For |
| Davis, David | 8 | For |
| Goldsmith, Zac | 8 | For |
| Henderson, Gordon | 8 | For |
| Drax, Richard | 7 | For |
| Binley, Brian | 6 | For |
| McCartney, Jason | 6 | For |
| Tapsell, Sir Peter | 6 | For |
| Walker, Charles | 6 | For |
| Baron, John | 5 | For |
| Bridgen, Andrew | 5 | For |
| Gray, James | 5 | For |
| McCartney, Karl | 4 | For |
| Vickers, Martin | 4 | For |
| Stuart, Graham | 4 | Against |
| Leigh, Edward | 3 | For |
| Rees-Mogg, Jacob | 3 | For |
| Bingham, Andrew | 2 | For |
| de Bois, Nick | 2 | For |
| Kelly, Chris | 2 | For |
| Stewart, Bob | 2 | For |
| Blackman, Bob | 2 | For |
| Reevel, Simon | 2 | For |
| Brady, Graham | 1 | For |
| Dineage, Caroline | 1 | For |
| Field, Mark | 1 | For |
| Mercer, Patrick | 1 | For |
| Mills, Nigel | 1 | For |
| Mosley, Nigel | 1 | For |
| Offord, Matthew | 1 | For |
| Pritchard, Mark | 1 | For |
| Smith, Henry | 1 | For |
| Tomlinson, Justin | 1 | For |
| Whittingdale, John | 1 | For |
| Wollaston, Dr Sarah | 1 | For |
| Bebb, Guto | 1 | Against |
| Bottomley, Sir Peter | 1 | Against |
| Cox, Geoffrey | 1 | Against |
| Eustice, George | 1 | Abstained |
| Freer, Mike | 1 | Against |
| Halfon, Robert | 1 | Against |
| Heaton-Harris, Chris | 1 | For |
| Latham, Pauline | 1 | Against |
| Lilley, Peter | 1 | Against |
| Raab, Dominic | 1 | Abstained |
| Stanley, Sir John | 1 | Against |
| Stephenson, Andrew | 1 | Against |
| Crouch, Tracey | 0 | For |
| Davies, David T C | 0 | For |
| Dorries, Nadine | 0 | For |
| Liddell-Grainger, Ian | 0 | Against |
| Morris, Anne Marie | 0 | For |
| Mowat, David | 0 | Against |
| Murray, Sheryll | 0 | For |
| Nokes, Caroline | 0 | For |
| Patel, Priti | 0 | For |
| Robertson, Laurence | 0 | For |
| Rosindell, Andrew | 0 | For |
| Spencer, Mark | 0 | Abstained |
| Weatherley, Mike | 0 | Double vote |
| Wheeler, Heather | 0 | For |
| Whittaker, Craig | 0 | For |
Point 11 – Huge Tory/Labour contrast. Not one of the Labour rebels is from the 2010 intake.
Agree. This is an excellent point, and probably more important than some of the ten we listed.
“One frustration – though only one – is that the whips cannot offer them jobs in Government because there simply are not enough to go around given the need to satisfy the Liberal Democrats.” – Very interesting point. Seeing as that will remain the same throughout the life of this Parliament could give creedence to the argument that these rebellions will continue.