After by-election victories in Clacton, and Rochester and Strood, Ukip is now hoping to establish a larger presence in the House of Commons. With little over five months to go until the general election, and aside from these two seats, Ukip’s top prospects in May 2015 include seats like Boston and Skegness, Castle Point, Thurrock, Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby. Another seat that is firmly on the radar is the Kent seat of Thanet South, where after much deliberation Nigel Farage has decided to stand.
But last week the assumption among Kippers that Farage will join Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless on the green benches was challenged by a constituency poll from Lord Ashcroft. It painted a bleak picture for Farage. In sharp contrast to the 44 per cent lead that Carswell enjoyed in the first poll in Clacton, or the 9 per cent lead that Reckless had in the first poll in Rochester and Strood, the snapshot suggests that in Thanet South Farage might not even be looking at victory.
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Dr Matthew Goodwin is Associate Professor of Politics. He is also Associate Fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House.